Supply and Demand Analysis of Water Resources based on System Dynamics Model

Liguo Huang, Li Yin


Humans require clean water for industrial, agricultural, domestic and ecological purposes. Due to climate change and population increase, the lack of clean water resources is becoming more and more serious. A system dynamics model of water resources is proposed for alleviating water shortage, changing the imbalance between supply and demand, promoting sustainable patterns of consumption and production, protecting and managing water resources. First, a water supply and demand model combining principles and methods of system dynamics was constructed by analyzing the factors that influence water resources. The model is divided into five subsystems according to the water’s purpose, i.e. a supply amount subsystem, an industrial water subsystem, an agricultural water subsystem, an ecological and domestic water subsystem, and a sewage water subsystem. In the model, the supply and demand index can indicate whether scarcity occurs as well as the degree of scarcity. The province of Shandong, China was picked as object of research. Relevant statistical data were analyzed to predict the supply and demand index in Shandong in 15 years using the model. Water scarcity in Shandong is explained through social and environmental drivers by addressing physical and economic decline. Finally, an intervention plan was formulated to avoid water shortage from occurring in the next 15 years.


linear regression; model; predication; system dynamics; index of supply and demand; water resources.

Full Text:



Yu, S.X. & Shang, J.C., Optimization of the Supply and Demand System of Urban Water Resources, Journal of Natural Resources, 17(2), pp. 229-233, 2002.

He, L., Liu, D. & Hang, W., Simulation for Water Supply and Demand System based on System Dynamics, Yangtze River, 41(3), pp. 38-63, 2010.

Qin, J., Dynamics Simulation based on Beijing Water Supply and Demand Balance System under Emergency Situations, Systems Engineering Theory and Practice, 35(3), pp. 671-676, 2015.

Yang, K.Y., The Impact of Urbanization on Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance in China by System Dynamics, Finance Research, (6), pp. 10-13, 2013.

Yin, M.W., Xie, X.M. & Wang, H., Water Resources Allocation Model based on Domestic, Productive and Ecologic-Environmental Water Consumption, Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 24(2), pp. 5-8, 2004.

Huang, L.G. & Yin, L., Models of Water Strategy Based on Linear Regression, Advanced Materials Research, 955-959, pp. 3355-3360, 2014.

Cannella, S., Order-up-to Policies in Information Exchange Supply Chains, Applied Mathematical Modeling, 38(23), pp. 5553-5561, 2014.

Langsdale, S., Beall, A., Carmichael, J. & Forster, C., An Exploration of Water Resources Futures under Climate Change Using System Dynamics modeling, The Integrated Assessment Journal, 7(1), pp. 51-79, 2007.

Wang J.S., Liu C.M. & Yu J.J., Theoretical Models for Space and Temporal Distribution of Water Resources, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 32(4), pp. 7-14, 2001.

Ciancimino E., Cannella S., Bruccoleri M. & Framinan, J.M., On the Bullwhip Avoidance Phase: the Synchronised Supply Chain, European Journal of Operational Research, 221(1), pp. 49-63, 2012.

McPhee, J. & Yeh, WW.G., Multiobjective Optimization for Sustainable Groundwater Management in Semiarid Regions, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 130(6), pp. 490-497, 2004.

Chen, B., Guo, H.C., Huang, G.H., Maqsood, I., Zhang, N., Wu, S.M. & Zhang, Z.X., ASRWM: an Arid/Semiarid Region Water Management Model, Engineering Optimization, 37(6), pp. 609-631, 2005.

Liu, C.M. & Wang, H.R., An Analysis of the Relationship between Water Resources and Population-Economy-Society-Environment, Journal of Natural Resources, 18(5), pp. 635-644, 2003.

Lee, T.S., Haque, M.A. & Najim, M., Modeling Water Resources Allocation in a Run-of-the-River Rice Irrigation Scheme, Water Resources Management, 19(5), pp. 571-584, 2005.

Mahjouri, N. & Ardestani, M., A Game Theoretic Approach for Interbasin Water Resources Allocation in the Water Quality Issues, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 167(1-4), pp. 527-544, 2010.

Jakimavičius, D. & Kriaučiūnienė, J., The Climate Change Impact on the Water Balance of the Curonian Lagoon, Water Resources, 40(2), pp. 120-132, 2013.

Wang, X.J., Zhang, J.Y., Shamsuddin, S., He, R-M., Xia, X-H. & Mou, X-L., Potential Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand in Yunlin City, Northwest China, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20(1), pp. 1-19, 2015.



  • There are currently no refbacks.