Opsi Terminasi Sebagai Instrumen Dukungan Pemerintah untuk Proyek Infrastruktur Berisiko Permintaan Tinggi

Andreas Wibowo

Abstract


Abstrak. Tulisan ini menawarkan opsi bagi pemegang konsesi untuk melakukan terminasi prematur kontrak sebagai alternatif dukungan pemerintah yang selama ini ada untuk proyek infrastruktur kerjasama Pemerintah dan badan usaha dengan skema Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT). Instrumen ini bermanfaat untuk proyek-proyek BOT dengan risiko tinggi yang tidak dapat dikendalikan dan diprediksi dengan pasti oleh para pihak, seperti ketidakpastian permintaan pada infrastruktur yang bersifat ritel. Instrumen ini memunyai elemen dukungan dengan mereduksi risiko permintaan dan, mengingat karakteristik aset yang berderajat spesifisitas tinggi, memberikan pemegang konsesi fleksibilitas terbatas atas keputusan mereka untuk tetap bertahan atau tidak saat proyek ternyata tidak layak finansial. Keuntungan lainnya menerapkan opsi ini adalah kewajiban kontijen pemerintah mudah diukur, yang tentunya memudahkan penyusunan anggaran berisiko. Dites pada sebuah proyek jalan tol hipotetik  menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo, instrumen ini terbukti mampu meningkatkan atraktivitas proyek yang dievaluasi meski seberapa besar opsi terminasi mampu meningkatkan kelayakan proyek sangat tergantung pada tingkat risiko proyek: semakin tinggi risiko justru akan meningkatkan nilai opsi ini. Tulisan ini juga menyajikan beberapa kelemahan dalam valuasi opsi ini dan beberapa pertanyaan penelitian terbuka yang dapat menjadi penelitian lanjutan dalam ranah ini.

Abstract. This paper proposes an option for the concessionaires to prematurely terminate the contracts as an alternative to existing government supports for public-corporate partnered infrastructure projects implemented under the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme. This instrument is well adapted to BOT projects under high risks which are neither controllable nor predictable with certainty by contracting parties, such as demand uncertainties in retail infrastructure. It shares some element of support by way of reducing demand risks and, given the high degree of asset specificity, providing concessionaires with limited flexibilities on their stay-or-exit decisions when the projects turn out be financially infeasible. Another advantage of adopting this instrument is that the government contingent liability is straightforwardly measured, thus allowing for the establishment of a better budget at risk. Tested on a hypothetical BOT toll road project and using Monte Carlo simulation, the option to terminate is proven to be useful for making the project under evaluation more attractive although the extent to which it improves the viability largely depends on the project riskiness: the higher uncertainty increases the value of this option. This paper also acknowledges its limitations on the valuation of this option and prompts some open research questions that may lead to future studies in the domain.

Keywords


Opsi terminasi; Risiko permintaan; Infrastruktur ritel; Build-operate-transfer; Simulasi onte Carlo.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5614%2Fjts.2015.22.3.3

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