Mathematical models of dengue fever epidemiology: multi-strain dynamics, immunological aspects associated to disease severity and vaccines

Maira Aguiar, Nico Stollenwerk


Epidemiological models formulated to describe the transmission of the disease and to predict future outbreaks, can become an interesting tool able to address specific public health questions, guiding public health authorities during implementation of disease control measures such as vector control and vaccination. In this paper, we survey a model framework for dengue fever epidemiology, the most important viral mosquitoborne disease in the world. Here, we discuss the role of number of subsequent infections versus detailed number of dengue serotypes included in the model framework and the human immunological aspects associated to disease severity, identifying the implications for model dynamics and its impact for vaccine implementation.


Dengue fever; multi-strain models; vaccine; chaos; predictability.

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This journal published by: Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society, Pusat Pemodelan Matematika dan Simulasi, Jalan Ganesa No. 10 Bandung 40116