# Analysis of A Coendemic Model of COVID-19 and Dengue Disease

## Authors

• Hilda Fahlena Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
• Widya Oktaviana Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
• Farida Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
• Sudirman Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
• Nuning Nuraini 1) Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia 2) Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia
• Edy Soewono 1) Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia 2) Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia

## Keywords:

COVID-19, dengue, SIR model, coendemic, basic reproductive ratio, hopf bifurcation

## Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread aggressively worldwide, infecting more than 170 million people with confirmed cases, including more than 3 million deaths. This pandemic is increasingly exacerbating the burden on tropical and subtropical regions of the world due to the pre-existing dengue fever, which has become endemic for a longer period in the same region. Co-circulation dengue and COVID-19 cases have been found and confirmed in several countries. In this paper, a deterministic model for the coendemic of COVID-19 and dengue is proposed. The basic reproduction ratio is obtained, which is related to the four equilibria, disease-free, endemic-COVID-19, endemic-dengue, and coendemic equilibria. Stability analysis is done for the first three equilibria. Furthermore, a condition for coexistence equilibrium is obtained, which gives a condition for bifurcation analysis. Numerical simulations were carried out to obtain a stable limit-cycle resulting from two Hopf bifurcation points with dengue transmission rate and COVID-19 transmission rate as the bifurcation parameter, representing a stable periodic coexistence of dengue and COVID-19 transmission. We identify the period of limit cycle decreases after reaching the maximum value.

## Author Biography

### Hilda Fahlena, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia

Industrial and Financial Research Group

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2021-12-31

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