Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Authors

  • Agus Hasan Department of ICT and Natural Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway
  • Yuki Nasution Department of Mathematics, Universitas Mulawarman, Samarinda 75123, Indonesia
  • Hadi Susanto Department of Mathematics, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
  • Endah Putri Department of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
  • Venansius Tjahjono Department of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
  • Dila Puspita Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
  • Kamal Sukandar Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
  • Nuning Nuraini Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
  • Widyastuti Public Health Office of Jakarta Province, Jakarta 10160, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.6

Keywords:

Compartmental model, reproduction number, infectious diseases

Abstract

This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt < 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

References

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Published

2022-08-02

How to Cite

Hasan, A., Nasution, Y., Hadi Susanto, Endah Putri, Venansius Tjahjono, Dila Puspita, Kamal Sukandar, Nuning Nuraini, & Widyastuti. (2022). Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia. Communication in Biomathematical Sciences, 5(1), 90-100. https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.6

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022)

Section

Articles

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