Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model

Jonathan Wells; David Greenhalgh; Yanfeng Liang; Itamar Megiddo; Wasi Ahmad Nazni; Teoh Guat-Ney; Han Lim Lee

doi:10.5614/cbms.2023.6.2.7

Authors

Jonathan Wells Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK & Public Health Scotland, Glasgow G2 6QE, Scotland, UK https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5047-6224
David Greenhalgh Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
Yanfeng Liang Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
Itamar Megiddo Department of Management Science University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0QU, UK
Wasi Ahmad Nazni Medical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Teoh Guat-Ney Medical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Han Lim Lee Vector-Borne Disease Control Branch Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Putrajaya, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2023.6.2.7

Keywords:

Dengue, auto-dissemination mosquito trap, Mosquito Home System, Aedes mosquitoes, Malaysia, SIR model, ordinary differential equations, stochastic, deterministic, vector-borne

Abstract

Classical mosquito control methods (e.g. chemical fogging) struggle to sustain long-term reductions in mosquito populations to combat vector-borne diseases like dengue. The Mosquito Home System (MHS) is an auto-dissemination mosquito trap, that kills mosquito larvae before they hatch into adult mosquitoes. A novel hybrid stochastic-deterministic model is presented, that successfully predicts the effect of deploying MHSs within high-rise flats in Selangor, Malaysia. Stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) equations (flats) are paired with an existing deterministic SIR model (wider Kuala Lumpur population). Model predictions provide excellent agreement with data from a 44 week MHS trial within the flats. The stochastic model is validated as a powerful tool for predicting short- and long-term impacts of deploying this style of trap within similar environments. Significant, sustainable reductions in mosquito populations are predicted when the MHS is active: with a mean of 9 (95% Uncertainty Range (UR): 1; 30) during the 44 week trial period, compared to 35 (95% UR: 1; 234) dengue cases with no MHSs. Long-term predictions for endemic equilibrium show MHSs significantly narrow the mosquito population distribution and reduce dengue prevalence: from a mean of 5 (95% UR: 0; 52) (no MHS), to 1 (95% UR: 0; 8) dengue cases annually (with MHS).

Author Biographies

Jonathan Wells, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK & Public Health Scotland, Glasgow G2 6QE, Scotland, UK

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, UK
and
Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK

David Greenhalgh, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, UK

Yanfeng Liang, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, UK

Itamar Megiddo, Department of Management Science University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0QU, UK

Department of Management Science University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G4 0QU, UK

Wasi Ahmad Nazni, Medical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia

Medical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, 50588 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Teoh Guat-Ney, Medical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia

Medical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, 50588 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Han Lim Lee, Vector-Borne Disease Control Branch Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Putrajaya, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia

Vector-Borne Disease Control Branch Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Putrajaya, Malaysia

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