Optimal Control Problem for Cholera Disease and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2021.53.2.3Keywords:
control campaign, drug treatment, personal protection, Vibrio cholerae, water sanitationAbstract
Cholera is a disease that continues to be a threat to public health globally and is an indicator of inequity and lack of social development in countries. For this reason, strategies for its control need to be investigated. In this work, an optimal control problem related to cholera disease was formulated by introducing personal protection, drug treatment and water sanitation as control strategies. First, the existence and characterization of controls to minimize the performance index or cost function was proved by using classic control theory. Then, the theoretical results were validated with numerical experiments by using data reported in the literature. Finally, the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed controls were determined through a cost-effectiveness analysis. The results showed that the use of the three controls simultaneously is the cheapest and most effective strategy to control the disease.
References
Sanchez, J.L., Vasquez, B., Begue, R.E., Meza, R., Castellares, G., Cabezas, C., Watts, D.M., Svennerholm, A.M., Sadoff, J.C., Taylor, D.N., Protective Efficacy of Oral Whole-Cell/Recombinant-B-Subunit Cholera Vaccine in Peru- Vian Military Recruits, The Lancet, 344(8932), pp. 1273?1276, 1994.
Sanchez, J.L., Vasquez, B., Begue, R.E., Meza, R., Castellares, G., Cabezas, C., Watts, D.M., Svennerholm, A.M., Sadoff, J.C., Taylor, D.N., Protective Efficacy of Oral Whole-cell/Recombinant-B-subunit Cholera Vaccine in Peruvian Military Recruits, The Lancet, 344(8932), pp. 1273-1276, 1994.
Okoh, A., Cholera Monitoring and Response Guidelines, Water Research Commission, 2018.
Faruque, S.M., Naser, I.B., Islam, M.J., Faruque, A., Ghosh, A., Nair, G.B., Sack, D.A. & Mekalanos, J.J., Seasonal Epidemics of Cholera Inversely Correlate with the Prevalence of Environmental Cholera Phages, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(5), pp. 1702-1707, 2005.
Shin, S., Desai, S.N., Sah, B.K. & Clemens, J.D., Oral Vaccines Against Cholera, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 52(11), pp. 1343-1349, 2011.
World Health Organization, Cholera Vaccines: WHO Position Paper, Weekly Epidemiological Record, Relevidiologique Hebdomadaire, 85(13), pp. 117-128, 2010.
Tian, J.P. & Wang, J., Global Stability for Cholera Epidemic Models, Mathematical Biosciences, 232(1), pp. 31-41, 2011.
Liao, S. & Wang, J., Stability Analysis and Application of a Mathematical Cholera Model, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 8(3), 2011.
Wang, J. & Liao, S., A Generalized Cholera Model and Epidemic-Endemic Analysis, Journal of Biological Dynamics, 6(2), pp. 568-589, 2012.
Cheng, Y., Wang, J. & Yang, X., On the Global Stability of a Generalized Cholera Epidemiological Model, Journal of Biological Dynamics, 6(2), pp. 1088-1104, 2012.
Zhou, X.Y. & Cui, J.A., Threshold Dynamics for A Cholera Epidemic Model with Periodic Transmission Rate, Applied Mathematical Modelling, 37(5), pp. 3093-3101, 2013.
Panja, P. & Mondal, S.K., A Mathematical Study on The Spread of Cholera, South Asian J. Math., 4(2), pp. 69-84, 2014.
Wang, X. & Wang, J., Analysis of Cholera Epidemics with Bacterial Growth and Spatial Movement, Journal of Biological Dynamics, 9(sup1), pp. 233-261, 2015.
Yang, Y., Zhang, C. & Jiang, X., Global Stability of a Seiqv Epidemic Model with General Incidence Rate, International Journal of Biomathematics, 8(02), pp. 1550020, 2015.
Okosun, K., Khan, M., Bonyah, E. & Okosun, O., Cholera-Schistosomiasis Coinfection Dynamics, Optimal Control Applications and Methods, 40(4), pp. 703-727, 2019, DOI:10.1002/oca.2507.
Mushayabasa, S. & Bhunu, C.P., Is HIV Infection Associated with An Increased Risk for Cholera? Insights From a Mathematical Model, Biosystems, 109(2), pp. 203-213, 2012.
Okosun, K. & Makinde, O.D., A Co-infection Model of Malaria and Cholera Diseases with Optimal Control, Mathematical Biosciences, 258, pp. 19-32 (2014)
Aldila, D., Analyzing the Impact of the Media Campaign and Rapid Testing for Covid-19 as an Optimal Control Problem in East Java, Indonesia, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 141, 110364, 2020.
Aldila, D., Ndii, M.Z. & Samiadji, B.M., Optimal Control on Covid-19 Eradication Program in Indonesia under the Effect of Community Awareness, Math. Biosci. Eng., 17, pp. 6355-6389, 2020.
Aldila, D., Cost-effectiveness and Backward Bifurcation Analysis on Covid-19 Transmission Model Considering Direct and Indirect Transmission, Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci., 49, pp. 1-28, 2020.
Mwasa, A. & Tchuenche, J., Mathematical Analysis of a Cholera Model with Public Health Interventions, Biosystems, 105, 2011, DOI 10.1016/j.biosystems.2011.04.001
Sardar, T., Mukhopadhyay, S., Bhowmick, A.R. & Chattopadhyay, J., An Optimal Cost Effectiveness Study on Zimbabwe Cholera Seasonal Data From 2008-2011. PLoS One, 8(12), e81231, 2013, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081231.
Isere, A., Osemwenkhae, J. & Okuonghae, D., Optimal Control Model for the Outbreak of Cholera in Nigeria, African Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science Research, 7(2), pp. 24-30, 2014.
Njagarah, J.B. & Nyabadza, F., Modelling Optimal Control of Cholera in Communities Linked by Migration, Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2015.
Lemos-Pai, A.P., Silva, C.J. & Torres, D.F., An Epidemic Model for Cholera with Optimal Control Treatment, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 318, pp. 168-180, 2017.
Cai, L.M., Modnak, C. & Wang, J., An Age-structured Model for Cholera Control with Vaccination, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 299, pp. 127-140, 2017.
Sun, G.Q., Xie, J.H., Huang, S.H., Jin, Z., Li, M.T. & Liu, L., Transmission Dynamics of Cholera: Mathematical Modeling and Control Strategies, Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 45, pp. 235-244, 2017.
Sepulveda, J., Gomez-Dantes, H. & Bronfman, M., Cholera in the Americas: An Overview, Infection, 20(5), pp. 243-248, 1992.
Lucas, M.E., Deen, J.L., Von Seidlein, L., Wang, X.Y., Ampuero, J., Puri, M., Ali, M., Ansaruzzaman, M., Amos, J. & Macuamule, A., Effectiveness of Mass Oral Cholera Vaccination in Beira, Mozambique, New England Journal of Medicine, 352(8), pp. 757-767, 2005.
Code, C.T., Endemic and Epidemic Dynamics of Cholera: The Role of the Aquatic Reservoir, BMC Infectious Diseases, 1(1), p. 1, 2001.
Jensen, M.A., Faruque, S.M., Mekalanos, J.J. & Levin, B.R., Modeling the Role of Bacteriophage in the Control of Cholera Outbreaks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(12), pp. 4652-4657, 2006.
Maurer, H., Bkens, C., Kim, J.H. & Kaya, C., Optimization Methods for the Verification of Second Order Sufficient Conditions for Bang-Bang Controls, Optimal Control Applications and Methods, 26(3), pp. 129-156, 2005.
Fleming, W.H. & Rishel, R.W., Deterministic and Stochastic Optimal Control, Vol. 1., Springer Science & Business Media, 2012.
Lenhart, S. & Workman, J.T., Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models, Chapman and Hall/CRC (2007)
Pontryagin, L.S., Mathematical Theory of Optimal Processes, Routledge, 2018.
Romero-Leiton, J.P. & Ibargn-Mondrag, E., Stability Analysis and Optimal Control Intervention Strategies of a Malaria Mathematical Model, Applied Sciences, 21, 2019.