Abnormally Low Bid Criterion pada Pengadaan Jasa Konstruksi Proyek Pemerintah dengan Sistem Evaluasi Harga Terendah

https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2023.30.2.12

Authors

Abstract

Abstrak

Tulisan ini bertujuan menentukan abnormally low bid criterion (ALBC) untuk mengevaluasi kewajaran harga penawaran pada pengadaan jasa konstruksi proyek fisik pemerintah yang menggunakan metode harga penawaran terendah berdasarkan data empiris sampel dari 2016 sampai 2021. Nilai ALBC dihitung sebagai nilai ekspektasi first-order statistics yang dihasilkan dari simulasi Latin Hypercube dengan asumsi identically independent beta distribution, yang dipilih berdasarkan hasil beberapa uji goodness-of-fit. Analisis korelasi memperlihatkan rasio penawaran berkorelasi dengan jumlah penawar, yang memberikan justifikasi adanya rasio penawaran yang spesifik untuk jumlah penawar tertentu, jika diketahui. Analisis juga memperlihatkan ALBC menurun seiring dengan bertambahnya jumlah penawar dan mendekati nilai minimum secara asimtotis. Tulisan ini juga mengusulkan batas bawah first-order statistics yang diambil dari nilai persentil ke 2,5 sebagai extremely low bid criterion (ELBC). Hasil simulasi menghasilkan nilai ELBC dan ALBC berturut-turut adalah 69% dan 83%. Tulisan ini juga mengidentifikasi beberapa keterbatasan studi dan ranah penelitian ke depan. 

Kata-kata kunci: Abnormally low bid criterion, extremely low bid criterion, first-order statistics, sistem evaluasi harga terendah, pengadaan pemerintah, Latin Hypercube Simulation.

Abstract

This paper aims to determine the abnormally low bid criterion (ALBC) for evaluating bid prices in public construction procurement using the low-bid system based on empirical data sampled between 2016 and 2021. The ALBC values were calculated as the expected values of the first-order statistics generated by the Latin Hypercube simulation under an identically independent beta distribution, which was chosen based on the results of several goodness-of-fit tests. According to the correlation analysis, bid ratios are correlated with the number of bidders, which justifies using a specific bid ratio for a given number of bidders, if known. It has been demonstrated that ALBC decreases with the number of bidders and approaches the minimum bid ratio value asymptotically. This paper also proposes the 2.5 percentile lower bound value of the first-order statistics as the criterion for extremely low bids (ELBC). The simulation indicates that the ELBC and ALBC values are 69% and 83%, respectively. This paper also acknowledges the limitations of the study, which can serve as guidelines for continued studies.

Keywords: Abnormally low bid criterion, extremely low bid criterion, first-order statistics, lowest bidding system, public procurement, Latin Hypercube Simulation.

 

Author Biography

Andreas Wibowo, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan

Dr. -Ing. habil. Wibowo is the Chair of the Center of Excellence in Urban Infrastructure Development and a senior lecturer in construction management at the Department of Civil Engineering of Parahyangan Catholic University. He was the Head of the Secretariat for the Agency for Promoting Water Supply Systems (BPPSPAM) and a research professor at the Agency for Research and Development, Ministry of Public Works Indonesia. His specialty areas include public/private/partnership in infrastructure development; financial engineering; risk modeling; simulation and analysis; construction economics. Dr.-Ing. habil. Wibowo has authored and co-authored more than 100 journal and conference papers. He obtained his Habilitation degree (a post-doctoral degree) from Bauhaus Universitaet Weimar (2016), a doctoral degree from Technische Universitaet Berlin (2005), and a bachelor's and a master's degree from Institute of Technology Bandung (1995, 1998), all majoring in civil engineering. He won a number of renowned scholarships and awards, including the Alexander von Humboldt re-invitation postdoc fellowship (2018), Emerald Literati Award (2016), Alexander von Humboldt fellowship (2011-2014), DAAD doctoral (2001-2005), and re-invitation scholarships (2009), Australia-Indonesia Governance Research Partnership (2007), URGE World Bank scholarship (1996-1998), and best paper awards in several conferences.

Published

2023-08-26