Analisis Deteriorasi Perkerasan Jalan Tol Terdampak Banjir dengan Model Markov Chain Transisi Homogen dan Non-Homogen
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2025.32.2.13Keywords:
Flood, deterioration, Markov Chain, Pavement Performance ModelAbstract
Abstrak
Model dan analisis yang mampu meramalkan dampak banjir terhadap kinerja perkerasan jalan raya, sangat penting untuk mengantisipasi penurunan kekuatan struktur perkerasan pasca terjadinya banjir. Model probabilistik, seperti Markov Chain, dianggap lebih realistis daripada model deterministik seperti HDM-III (Patterson), yang kurang sesuai untuk menilai perkerasan jalan tol yang terdiri dari perkerasan kaku dengan lapisan blacktop AC-WC. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan penggunaan model Markov Chain dengan MPT Homogen dan MPT Non-Homogen dalam menganalisis deteriorasi perkerasan jalan tol khususnya jika terdapat kejadian seperti banjir sehingga akan diketahui MPT mana yang lebih sesuai untuk digunakan dalam kondisi tersebut.
Analisis yang dilakukan pada jalan tol Jakarta-Cikampek dan Padaleunyi selama periode tahun 2020-2023 menghasilkan nilai MAPE model Markov Chain dalam kategori akurasi layak/wajar sebesar 25.75% untuk MPT Homogen dan 22.50% untuk MPT Non Homogen. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, model Markov Chain dengan MPT Non Homogen lebih tepat digunakan untuk memodelkan deteriorasi perkerasan jalan tol selama periode terjadinya kejadian khusus misalnya banjir dibandingkan dengan MPT Homogen. Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan perbedaan pola program pemeliharaan (frekuensi dan tingkat penanganan) di mana model Markov Chain menghasilkan luasan proyeksi kebutuhan program pemeliharaan berupa rehabilitasi mayor tahun 2024-2028 lebih besar dibandingkan rencana jangka panjang yang telah disusun menggunakan model deteriorasi IRI HDM-III (Patterson).
Kata-kata Kunci: Banjir, Deteriorasi, Markov Chain, Model Performa Perkerasan.
Abstract
The loss in pavement structural strength following flooding must be predicted using models and analysis that can forecast how flooding would affect highway pavement performance. When evaluating highway pavements made up of stiff pavements with AC-WC blacktop layers, probabilistic models like Markov Chain are seen to be more realistic than deterministic models like HDM-III (Patterson). This study compares the application of Markov Chain models with Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous TPM in assessing toll road pavement deterioration, particularly during floods, in order to determine whether TPM is more suited for usage in these circumstances.
The analysis of the 2020?2023 Jakarta?Cikampek and Padaleunyi toll roads produced a MAPE value for the Markov Chain model in the acceptable/reasonable accuracy category of 22.50% for the Non-Homogeneous TPM and 25.75% for the Homogeneous TPM. This suggests that, in contrast to the Homogeneous TPM, the Markov Chain model with Non-Homogeneous TPM is more suited for simulating pavement deterioration on toll roads during times of unusual occurrences, such floods. Additionally, this study illustrates differences in maintenance program patterns (frequency and treatment level), with the Markov Chain model generating a larger projection of maintenance program needs in the form of major rehabilitation for 2024-2028 than the long-term plan which was created using the IRI HDM-III (Patterson) deterioration model.
Keywords: Flood, Deterioration, Markov Chain, Pavement Performance Model
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