Regulasi Tarif Sistem Hibrid Alternatif untuk Proyek Privatisasi Infrastruktur Berisiko Tinggi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2006.13.2.2Keywords:
Sistem hibrid alternatif, Sistem price-cap, Sistem rate-of-return, Model finansial, Monte carlo, Infrastruktur, PrivatisasiAbstract
Abstrak. Tulisan ini menyajikan suatu sistem alternatif regulasi tarif yang mengkombinasikan fitur dari sistem price-cap traditional dan sistem rate-of-return untuk proyek privatisasi infrastruktur. Sistem yang diusulkan memang membatasi laju pengembalian yang dapat dinikmati investor tetapi memberikan proteksi kepada investor dari risiko laju pengembalian yang terlalu rendah sebagaimana dalam sistem rate-of-return. Namun demikian, tergantung pada internal rate-of-return minimum yang dijamin dan internal rate-of-return maksimum yang diijinkan, sistem ini masih tetap memotivasi investor sampai tahap tertentu untuk melakukan efisiensi dalam pengoperasian. Pemodelan finansial dilakukan untuk mengevaluasi cashflow proyek di bawah ketidakpastian bila tarif diregulasi menggunakan sistem alternatif ini. Hasil simulasi menggunakan teknik sampling Monte Carlo pada proyek hipotetik jalan tol menunjukkan bahwa investor secara finansial lebih baik bila tarif diregulasi dengan sistem alternatif ini dibandingkan sistem price-cap tradisional pada kondisi risiko volume lalulintas tinggi dan prediksi volume lalulintas sangat rentan terhadap kesalahan.Abstract. This paper proposes an alternative regulation system which shares some feature of the traditional price-cap system and the return-of-return system for high-risk privatized infrastructure projects. While the proposed system caps the return earned by investor, it provides a downside risk protection as does the pure rate-of-return regime. Given the guaranted minimum IRR and the allowable maximum IRR, the system still motivates the investor to seek efficiency to some extent in operating the facility, however. The financial modelling is performed to evaluate the project's cashflow under uncertainty whenever tariffs are regulated under the alternative system. Simulation results using the Monte Carlo sampling technique on a hypothetical toll road exhibit that the investor fares better under the system than under the traditional price-cap system in the event of high traffic risk and prone-to-error traffic forecasts.
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