Predicting The Influence of Accident Related Factors on Motorcycle Fatal Accidents Using Logistic Regression (Case Study : Tabanan, Bali)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2009.16.1.3Keywords:
Motorcycle, Fatal accidents, Logistic regression.Abstract
Abstract. There were about 86.62% motorcycle accidents of all road accidents during period 2003-2008 in Tabanan regency, Bali Province. Of those motorcycle accidents, 50% included motorcycle fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal road accidents during period 2003-2008 in the Regency of Tabanan, Bali, using logistic regression technique. Based on accident data, eight predictor variables were employed in the developed models. The study found that the odds of motorcycle fatal accident due to motorists failed to yield and collision with light vehicles were both about 0.4 times lower than for accident due to other causes and collision with motorcycles respectively. Thus, the probabilities of failed to yield andlight vehicle were about 30% and 28% respectively contributing on motorcycle fatal accidents.
Abstrak. Kecelakaan lalu lintas yang melibatkan sepeda motor berkisar 86,62% dari seluruh kecelakaan lalu lintas yang terjadi selama periode tahun 2003-2008 di Kabupaten Tabanan, Provinsi Bali. Dari kecelakaan lalu lintas yang melibatkan sepeda motor tersebut, 50% merupakan kecelakaan fatal. Pada studi ini, regresi logistik digunakan untuk analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kecelakaan fatal yang melibatkan sepeda motor dalam kurun waktu tahun 2003-2008 di Kabupaten Tabanan, Provinsi Bali. Dari data kecelakaan lalu lintas, delapan variabel penduga digunakan pada penyusunan model. Hasil analisis memperlihatkan bahwa kecelakaan fatal akibat pengendara kendaraan bermotor tidak memberikan prioritas kepada pengguna jalan lainnya dan akibat tabrakan
dengan kendaraan ringan mempunyai odds yang sama yaitu 0,4 kali lebih rendah dibandingkan kecelakaan karena sebab-sebab lainnya dan kecelakaan akibat tabrakan dengan sepeda motor. Peluang dari pengendara kendaraan bermotor tidak memberikan prioritas kepada pengguna jalan lainnya dan tabrakan dengan kendaraan ringan adalah berturut-turut sebanyak 30% dan 28% dalam mempengaruhi terjadinya kecelakaan fatal yang melibatkan sepeda motor.
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