Inflasi dalam Analisis Finansial Investasi Jalan Tol: Perlakuan dan Pengaruhnya bagi Badan Usaha dan Pemerintah
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2012.19.1.2Keywords:
Investasi jalan tol, Inflasi, nominal, Riil, Kewajiban kontingensi.Abstract
Abstrak. Tulisan ini membahas peran penting yang dimainkan inflasi dalam analisis kelayakan proyek investasi jalan tol yang diselenggarakan dengan kontrak build, operate, transfer (BOT) dikaitkan dengan rejim tarif yang berlaku saat ini di industri jalan tol nasional dan kewajiban kontingensi pemerintah dari dukungan yang diberikan kepada badan usaha. Konversi arus kas dari nominal ke riil menunjukkan rejim tarif yang berlaku saat ini bertentangan dengan salah satu prinsip alokasi risiko yang efisien dengan, secara implisit, menempatkan badan usaha sebagai pihak yang harus mengelola risiko inflasi sementara mereka bukan pihak yang paling mampu, setidaknya bila dibandingkan dengan pengguna jalan tol sebagai konsumen dalam konteks alokasi risiko yang optimal. Asumsi laju inflasi juga berkaitan langsung dengan besaran kompensasi dan risiko fiskal yang harus ditanggung pemerintah saat memberikan dukungan land capping dan garansi pendapatan minimum. Tulisan ini merekomendasikan adanya peninjauan ulang rejim tarif yang berlaku saat ini dengan memberlakukan interval penyesuaian tarif tiap tahun dalam upaya lebih baik mengimunisasi badan usaha dari risiko inflasi. Tulisan ini juga menyarankan badan usaha dan khususnya pemerintah untuk tetap menaruh perhatian pada asumsi laju inflasi.Abstract. This paper discusses the pivotal role played by inflation in the financial analysis of toll road investment projects under build/operate/transfer (BOT) arrangements associated with the prevailing tariff regime in the national toll road industry and the contingent liabilities arising from the government supports provided for the investors. Converting nominal to real cash flow demonstrates that the present tariff regime violates one of the efficient risk allocation principle in the sense that it puts the investors at a position to manage inflation risk which is not the best party if compared to, at least, the toll road users as customers in the context of optimal risk allocation. The assumed inflation rate is straightforwardly associated with compensations and the fiscal risk of the government when offering supports by means of land-capping and minimum revenue guarantee. The paper advises a review on the present tariff regime by recommending an annual toll rate adjustment in the quest of better immunizing the operating investors against inflation risk. It also advocates the investors and especially the government to remain attentive to the inflation rate assumption.
References
Bain, R., and Plantagie, J.W., 2004, Traffic Forecasting Risk: Study Update 2004, Report, Standard & Poor's, London.
Bain, R., 2009, Error and Optimism Bias in Toll Road Traffic Forecasts, Transportation, Vol. 36, 469-482.
Bain, R., and Plantagie, J.W., 2003, Traffic Forecasting Risk: Study Update 2003, Report, Standard & Poor's, London.
Bain, R., and Polakovic, L., 2005, Traffic Forecasting Risk Study 2005: through Ramp-up and Beyond, Report, Standard & Poor's, London.
Bain, R., and Wilkins, M., 2002, Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-up Toll Facilities, Report, Standard & Poor's, London.
Blanco, C., and Soronow, D., 2001, Mean Reverting Processes-Energy Price Processes Used for Derivatives Pricing and Risk Management, Commodities Now, June, 68-72.
Brealey, R.A., and Myers, S. C., 2000, Principles of Corporate Finance, 6th Ed., Irwin Mc-Graw-Hill, New York.
Damodaran, A., 1994, Damodaran on Valuation: Security Analysis for Investment and Corporate Finance, 2nd. Ed., New York: John Wiley&Sons.
Kerf, M., et. al., 1998, Concessions for Infrastructure: a Guide to Their Design and Award, Paper no. 399, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Levy, H., and Sarnat, M., 1986, Capital Investment and Financial Decisions, 3rd Ed., London: Prentice-Hall International.
Lobo, A.G., and Hinojosa, S., 2000, Broad Roads in a Thin Country: Infrastructure Concessions in Chile, Paper no. 2279, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Mozes, D., 1995, Long-term Finance in Inflationary Economies: High Inflation Creates Punishing Repayment Schedule, Note No. 35, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Sharpe, W.F., 1964, Capital Asset Prices: a Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, Journal of Finance, 19, 425-442.
Wibowo, A., 2010, Instrumen Land Capping dan Kompensasi Lainnya terkait Pengadaan Lahan dalam Proyek Pembangunan Jalan Tol: Dampak, Isu, dan Permasalahannya, Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknik Sipil VI, 27 Januari 2010, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh November, C1-C10.
Wibowo, A., 2006, Mengukur Risiko dan Atraktivitas Investasi Infrastruktur di Indonesia, Jurnal Teknik Sipil Institut Teknologi Bandung, Vol. 13, No.3, 123-132.
Zhang, X.Q., 2005, Financial Viability Analysis and Capital Structure Optimization in Privatized Public Infrastructure Projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 131, No. 6, 656-668.
Zhang, X.Q., dan AbouRizk, S.M., 2006, Determining a Reasonable Concession Period for Private Sector Provision of Public Works and Services, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 33, No. 5, 622-631.
