Menentukan Besaran Dukungan Pemerintah dan Dampaknya Bagi Atraktivitas Proyek Infrastruktur Berbasis Kerja Sama Pemerintah-Swasta

Authors

  • Andreas Wibowo Ministry of Public Works and Housing

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2017.24.2.10

Keywords:

Kerja sama pemerintah-swasta, infrastruktur, jaminan, viability gap funding, cumulative prospect theory.

Abstract

Abstrak

Untuk menarik pendanaan swasta bagi pembangunan infrastruktur, Pemerintah Indonesia mengeluarkan kebijakanmemberikan dukungan bagi proyek-proyek infrastruktur publik yang diselenggarakan menggunakan skema kerjasama pemerintah-swasta (KPS). Dukungan ini termasuk jaminan dan viability gap funding (VGF) yang masing-masingmerepresentasikan kewajiban kontijen dan non-kontijen bagi Pemerintah. Isu yang belum pernahdidiskusikan sebelumnya adalah tipe dukungan apa dan berapa besar yang dibutuhkan untuk membuat proyek KPSberisiko mampu menarik minat investor swasta. Tulisan ini mengisi kekosongan pengetahuan ini denganmenawarkan model matematis yang mengombinasikan simulasi Monte Carlo dan cumulative prospect theory (CPT)dan pemikiran mengenai keputusan bentuk dukungan. Model ini diaplikasikan pada suatu proyek jalan tol berbasisbuild-operate-transfer dengan berbagai skenario ekspektasi dan varian arus kas. Sebagaimana diperlihatkan,proyek yang secara pro-forma dianggap layak bisa tidak atraktif bila dievaluasi menggunakan CPT danmembutuhkan dukungan untuk membuatnya atraktif. Model memungkinkan jaminan dan VGF dapat dinilai,dievaluasi dan dibandingkan untuk mendapatkan dukungan yang paling sesuai. Disajikan pula dalam tulisan inibahwa VGF yang dibutuhkan meningkat sementara nilai jaminan tidak harus meningkat dengan risiko proyek,sebagaimana diprediksikan oleh teori opsi.

Abstract

To encourage private financing for infrastructure development, the Government of Indonesia has embarked upon apolicy to provide supports for public infrastructure projects implemented under public-private partnership (PPP)scheme. These supports include guarantee and viability gap funding (VGF) that each represents contingent andnon-contingent liability for the Government. The issues of interest that have never been discussed elsewhere aretypes and quanta of support required to attract private sector interest for a risky PPP project. This paper attemptsto fill this gap of knowledge by offering a mathematical model that combines Monte Carlo Simulation andcumulative prospect theory (CPT) and insights into government support decision problems. This model was testedon a build-operate-transfer toll road project under different scenarios of cash flow expectations and variances. Asdemonstrated, a pro-forma viable project can be found unattractive if evaluated under the CPT framework andrequires some support to make it attractive. This model enables the guarantee and VGF to be assessed, evaluated,and compared and obtains the most feasible support. It has also been shown that the required VGF increases whilethe value of guarantee does not necessarily increase with the project risk as the option theory may predict.

Author Biography

Andreas Wibowo, Ministry of Public Works and Housing

Dr.-Ing. habil. Wibowo is a research professor at Agency for Research and Development Ministry of Public Works Indonesia and a senior lecturer at School of Graduate Program in Civil Engineering Parahyangan Catholic University.  He lectures  courses on 'construction risk management', 'construction financial management', 'cost estimation', 'project management', and 'decision-making theories.' His research interest areas include public/private/partnership in infrastructure, engineering economics, financial modeling and engineering, construction scheduling and controlling, construction management and economics. He is extensively involved in state- and privately funded research and consultancy projects. He has authored and coauthored more than 100 technical papers published in renowned journals and conference proceedings, including those appearing in ASCE Journal of Constr. Eng. and Mgmt., Int. J. Project Mgmt., Eng. Constr. Arch. Mgmt, and Constr. Mgmt. Econ., Benchmarking, Public Works Mgmt. and Policy, and Built Env. and Project Asset Mgmt. He obtained Habilitation from Bauhaus-Universitaet Weimar (2016), doctoral degree (2005) from Technische Universitaet Berlin, master''s and bachelor's degree (1998, 1995) from Institute of Technology Bandung Indonesia, all majoring in civil engineering with a specific focus on construction management.

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Published

2017-08-07

How to Cite

Wibowo, A. (2017). Menentukan Besaran Dukungan Pemerintah dan Dampaknya Bagi Atraktivitas Proyek Infrastruktur Berbasis Kerja Sama Pemerintah-Swasta. Jurnal Teknik Sipil, 24(2), 183-194. https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2017.24.2.10

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