Purely Data-driven Exploration of COVID-19 Pandemic After Three Months of the Outbreak
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2021.53.3.2Keywords:
basic reproduction, clustering, COVID-19, doubling period, dynamical systems, parameter estimation, SIR modelAbstract
Many research studies have been carried out to understand the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in its early phase. The current study is yet another contribution to better understand the disease properties by parameter estimation based on mathematical SIR epidemic modeling. The authors used Johns Hopkins University?s dataset to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 for five representative countries (Japan, Germany, Italy, France, and the Netherlands) that were selected using cluster analysis. As byproducts, the authors estimated the transmission, recovery, and death rates for each selected country and carried out statistical tests to see if there were any significant differences.
References
Fan, Y., Zhao, K., Shi, Z.L. & Zhou, P., Bat Coronaviruses in China, Viruses, 11(3), pp. 210, 2020.
Wu, Z. & McGoogan, J.M., Characteristics of and Important Lessons f From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, JAMA, 2020.
Lai, C-C., Shih, T-P., Ko, W-C., Tang, H-J. & Hsueh, P-R. (2020), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS Cov-2) and Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19): The Epidemic and the Challenges, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, pp. 105924, 2020.
Zhao, S., Lin, Q., Ran, J., Musa, S.S., Yang, G., Wang, W., Lou, Y., Gao, D., Yang, L., He, D. & Wang, M.H., Preliminary Estimation of The Basic Reproduction Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, From 2019 to 2020: A Data-Driven Analysis in the Early Phase of the Outbreak, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 92, pp. 214-217, 2020.
Read, J.M., Bridgen, J.R., Cummings, D.A., Ho, A. & Jewell, C.P., Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): Early Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters and Epidemic Size Estimates, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 376(1829), pp. 20200265, 2021.
Liu, Y., Gayle, A.A., Wilder-Smith, A. & Rocklov, J., The Reproductive Number of COVID-19 is Higher Compared to SARS Coronavirus, Journal of Travel Medicine, 2020
CDC, The 2019 Novel Coronavirus, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, http://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/szkb 11803/, (26 January 2020).
You, C., Deng, Y., Hu, W., Sun, J., Lin, Q., Zhou, F., Pang, C.H., Zhang, Y., Chen, Z. & Zhou, X.H., Estimation of the Time-varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak In China, International Journal Of Hygiene And Environmental Health, 228, pp. 113555, 2020.
Rabajante, J.F., Insights from Early Mathematical Models of 2019-nCoV Acute Respiratory Disease (COVID-19) Dynamics, Arxiv Preprint Arxiv:2002.05296, 2020.
Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases. JHU CSSE, https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19, (25 March 2020)
