The Impact of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) on Spatio-Temporal Variations of Indonesian Extreme Rainfall

Rahmat Hidayat; Eleven  Saputra; Givo  Alsepan

doi:10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2025.57.1.5

Authors

Rahmat Hidayat Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, IPB University, Indonesia
Eleven Saputra Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, IPB University, Indonesia
Givo Alsepan Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2025.57.1.5

Keywords:

atmospheric convection, ETCCDMI, precipitation, spatio-temporal, trend

Abstract

Atmospheric instability frequently influences the distribution of precipitation and is closely associated with atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics. An increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) has the potential to result in the development of convective clouds, which could contribute to extreme rainfall. This study used rainfall data from Asian Precipitation?Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) and CAPE data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We defined extreme rainfall trends by applying the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), which include the number of days with precipitation greater than the 95th percentile (R95P), consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), the number of days with precipitation greater than 10 mm (R10mm), the number of days with precipitation greater than 20 mm (R20mm), and the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII). Using Mann-Kendall statistics, we found that the trend of extreme rainfall in Indonesia from 1983 to 2007 was predominantly characterized by the extreme category, as indicated by the increasing CDD indices. During the MAM-SON seasons, the CAPE had a substantial contribution to the extreme rainfall in Indonesia. The CAPE exhibited a significant positive (negative) correlation with the CWD and R10mm (CDD) indices.

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