Metodologi Perhitungan Required Rate of Return berdasarkan Cumulative Prospect Theory: Studi Kasus Proyek Investasi Jalan Tol
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2011.18.2.1Keywords:
Total risk approach, capital asset pricing model, Cumulative prospect theory, Premium, Jalan tol.Abstract
Abstrak. Salah satu faktor mendasar yang perlu dipertimbangkan saat menawarkan proyek-proyek jalan tol ke sektor swasta adalah bahwa proyek tersebut harus layak secara finansial. Dalam konteks yang lebih sempit, keatraktivan biasanya diukur dari NPV atau IRR. Dengan demikian isu menentukan tingkat diskonto atau minimum acceptable/attractive rate of return yang tepat menjadi salah satu isu yang sangat krusial. Tulisan ini menawarkan metodologi perhitungan required rate of return (RRR) yang sistematis untuk proyek infrastruktur berbasis total risk approach yaitu risiko sistematis dan risiko non-sistematis. Capital asset pricing model dan certainty equivalent method yang dikombinasikan dengan cumulative prospect theory diaplikasikan untuk mengestimasi premium risiko sistematis dan risiko non-sistematis. Tiga proyek jalan tol yang diselenggarakan dengan kontrak build, operate, transfer dijadikan studi kasus dalam makalah ini untuk keperluan ilustrasi aplikasinya dengan hasil RRR untuk masing-masing proyek.Abstract. One of the underlying factors needing to be considered when offering toll road projects to the private sector is that they must be financially feasible. In the narrower context, the attractiveness of a project is usually measured via NPV or IRR. Accordingly, the issue of determining the correct discount rate or minimum acceptable/attractive rate of return becomes one of the critical issues. This paper presents a systematic computational methodology for determining the required rate of return (RRR) of infrastructure projects based on the total risk approach i.e. systematic and non-systematic risks. The capital asset pricing model and the certainty equivalent method combined with the cumulative prospect theory are applied to estimate systematic and non-systematic risk premium. A total of three toll road projects implemented under build, operate, transfer (BOT) contracts are taken as case studies for application illustrations with individual required rate of return resulted for each project.
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