PENGARUH FAKTOR-FAKTOR EKONOMI DAN KEPENDUDUKAN TERHADAP TIMBULAN SAMPAH DI IBU KOTA PROVINSI JAWA DAN SUMATERA
Abstract
Abstrak: Pertumbuhan penduduk, industrialisasi, urbanisasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi mempengaruhi limbah padat perkotaan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi pola-pola lokal terkait perkembangan persampahan di Jawa dan Sumatera, menganalisis hubungan antara variabel ekonomis dan demografi terhadap timbulan sampah, serta proyeksi timbulan sampah menggunakan uji model di pusat-pusat pertumbuhan. Penelitian ini melakukan analisis klaster, kuadran dan tipologi klassen untuk mengetahui pola karakteristik dan timbulan di Jawa dan Sumatera. Kemudian dilakukan analisis hubungan antara variabel demografi dan ekonomi terhadap timbulan sampah dan uji model Daskalopoulus, Khajuria serta pengembangan model Khajuria. Berdasarkan hasil analisis klaster, kuadran dan klasen typology diperoleh tiga pola timbulan di ibu kota provinsi Jawa dan Sumatera. Hasil analisis hubungan variable menunjukkan bahwa indeks harga konsumen, jumlah penduduk dan PDRB mempengaruhi timbulan sampah. Hasil uji coba model Daskalopoulos menunjukkan timbulan sampah di Jawa dan Sumatera dapat dijelaskan sebesar 33,7% oleh indeks harga konsumen per kategori. Hasil uji coba model Khajuria menunjukkan timbulan sampah di Jawa dan Sumatera dapat dijelaskan sebesar 42,5% oleh jumlah penduduk, PDRB, dan lama sekolah. Hasil uji pengembangan model Khajuria menunjukkan timbulan sampah di Jawa dan Sumatera dapat dijelaskan oleh jumlah penduduk, PDRB, lama sekolah, angka melek huruf, kepadatan penduduk dan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 65,6%. Proyeksi timbulan sampah dilakukan menggunakan pengembangan model Khajuria dan persamaan diskriminan. Hasil proyeksi timbulan sampah menunjukkan bahwa kota Pangkalpinang dan Tanjungpinang merupakan kota dengan timbulan sampah tertinggi per lima tahun ke depan. Biaya pengelolaan sampah yang dibutuhkan oleh kedua kota tersebut cukup besar, yaitu di atas 0,8% dari PDRB.
Kata kunci: timbulan sampah, uji model, proyeksi, PDRB
Abstract: Population growth, industrialization, urbanization and economic growth increasing municipal solid waste. The purposes of this study were to identify patterns associated local waste development in Java and Sumatra, to analyze the relationship between economic and demographic variable to waste generation and to do the projection of waste generation using test models. Cluster, quadrant and Tipologi klassen analysis was done to determine the pattern of characteristics and waste generation in Java and Sumatra. Then analyzed the relationship between economic and demographic variables against waste generation and also performed Daskalopoulus, kahjuria and development of Khajuria model test. Based on cluster, quadrant and tipologi klassen analysis, there are three patterns of waste generation in Java and Sumatera. Population, consumer price index and GDP indicate the amount of waste generations. The test result of Daskalopoulos model was waste generation in Java and Sumatra can be explained 33.7% by consumption expenditure per category. The test result of Khajuria model was waste generation in Java and Sumatra can be explained 42.5% by total population, GDP, and school's period. The development of Khajuria model showed that waste generation in Java and Sumatra can be explained 65.6% by total population, GDP, school's period, literacy, economic growth and population density. Waste generations projected by the development of Khajuria model. Waste generation's projection showed that Tanjungpinang and Pangkalpinang are cities with the highest waste generation in per five years. The cost that is spent for waste management also bigger in these city, above 0.8% from the GDP.
Keywords: Waste generation, test model, projection, GDP
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